Is anyone that smart?

Is anyone smart enough to have recognized problems with the economy before it got this bad, and is anyone smart enough to fix them? Well, such people did exist and do exist but that doesn't mean anyone is willing to listen.

An example are those analysts and investors who realized that Madoff's split-strike conversion strategy could not produce such stable profits, and reviewed Madoff's records and then concluded it was fraud. Many people fell for Madoff's "it's proprietary information" and "don't tell anyone you are invested with me."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122956314669716617.html
"In 1999, trader Harry Markopolos wrote that "Madoff Securities is the world's largest Ponzi Scheme," in a letter to the SEC."

"The fact is that the only people who seem to have taken concrete action to protect investors from Mr. Madoff are private research shops like Aksia LLC. Its analysts did the real work of figuring out that Mr. Madoff's claimed investment strategy couldn't be happening at the volumes he claimed to be trading. Likewise, it was the short sellers who first blew the whistle on Enron, while the SEC was clueless and the firm's auditors were asleep."

Who is really going to listen to the boy crying wolf when the party is so much fun?

Why do I care aside from being out of a high paying job recently myself in UI Design and Business Analysis? I am no big time investor but for 10 years at least I'd been commenting to my best friend "I don't understand how economics works." and "Where is all the money coming from?" and "How come I don't think it is funny that banks 'accidently' grant a credit card to a dog?"

Looking at US economics from a larger patterns view, (the best of my skills), I saw a pattern that didn't match, it made no sense, there was too much money focused in all the same places. The problem with my simple observation was the ground I was standing on - the assumption I made - that is if you are an honest person, expecting the numbers to match, not expecting that it is possible they won't add up.

It was that one thing that I could not understand, how could an entire country try and fool itself? I did not expect that so many would be asleep at the wheel or that there were so many wolves driving those vehicles. It was the piece of the analysis pie that I presumed as innocent when it just wasn't.

My friend remarked to me recently "The reason you couldn't see how the economy works is because it didn't work. The economic machine you were looking at -- it wasn't working, we just didn't see it break down until now."

As an outsider some of the things I noticed where advertising programs that probably cost more than they could bring in. Even accounting for companies wanting market share, it still did not seem to be economically feasible.

Sometimes I have overcome this fault such as by judging a polititan by his face; Nixon and Geo W Bush. However I was conned when traveling recently, and after reading about this kind of person I realized he displayed several of the "tells" of his behavior such as changing his tone and volume of his voice in odd ways which con artists use to sound more convincing or commanding and confuse their prey.

This technique is just exactly like television advertising does. Its a very simple, effective - obey - "buy this now!" technique.

It is important that individuals learn to recognize such behavior in others whether it is on an individual or national level - it always comes down to if something doesn't feel right or the money is too easy -- it isn't right.

Even if I had seen more clearly how the economics in N. America weren't working, I'd still be out of a job now, because we would still have to wait until the economy broke down for everyone to see we need to change.

The Cassandra Effect is knowing something (good or bad) will happen in advance, but even after communicating nobody listens or can act on the information. Even if you know, it does not mean anyone will or can listen and understand you or change anything.

Sometimes its like knowing you should loose weight or other self-improvement - you know it, but you can't or don't act and when the consequences hit they may be worse than expected.

I am much less concerned about the Gross National Product and more concerned with Gross National Happiness. We have to all be smart together. And that is either socialist (which we are doing with the banks and car companies) or - communism.